 615

 19.5 ()

50	81,0	86,5
75	87,5	90,5
100	89,5	92,0

: Lawrence D. Brown and Michael S. Rozeff, The Superiority of Analyst Forecasts as Measures
of Expectations: Evidence from Earnings, Journal of Finance, 33, no. 1 (March 1978), pp. 7-8.

        ,  -
   240, 180, 120  60      
28.      ,    
     .  240  -
         
         ; 180  
           .. 
,    50  130      1975 
1982 .,      Institutional Brokers Estimate System (I/B/E/S), -
   Lynch, Jones & Ryan.

 . 19.6    .  , -
 RW,    ,    , 
   (.  (19.16)).  , 
AR, -       ,   
   (19.19).      , 
I/B/E/S,      ,  I/B/E/S.

 19.6

         
  ( .) '^^ɻ^^

    

:	240	180	120	60
 	0,781	0,620	0,363	0,963
	0,975	0,780	0,592	0,350
 	0,747	0,645	0,516	0,395
 	0,742	0,610	0,468	0,342

:  : Patricia C. O'Brien, Analysts' Forecasts as Earnings Expectations, Journal of
Accounting and Economics, 10, no. 1 (January 1988), Table 4.

          -
   :

FE=\A-F,                         (19.22)

 /^      -   -
  .

 19.6     . -, 
          
.  ,       ,  -