628                                                    19

18  ,       (1)     
  (QE, _,  QE, g),   -,  (2)    b  -
         (, _,). .: . A. Griffin, The Time-
Series Behavior of Quarterly Earnings: Preliminary Evidence, Journal of Accounting, 15, no. 1 (Spring 1977):

7183; Lawrence D. Brown and Michael S. Rozeff, Univariate Time-Series Models of Quarterly Accounting
Earnings per Share: A Proposed Model, Journal of Accounting Research, 17,no. 1 (Spring 1979), pp. 179-189;

and Alien W. Bathke, Jr. and Kenneth S. Lorek, The Relationship Between Time Series Models and the Security
Market's Expectations ofQuarterly Earnings, Accountings Review, 59, no. 2 (April 1984), pp. 163176.

19           , 
    ,         
  ,    .   -
 .  : Alexander and Francis, Portfolio Analysis, pp. 195-196,    
.

20 Victor Niederhoffer and Patrick J. Regan, Earnings Changes, Analysts' Forecasts, and Stock Prices,
Financial Analysts Journal, 28, no. 3 (MayJune 1972), pp. 6571.  ,   
Journal of Accounting and Economics  / 1992 .   
     ,        
 .

21   ,    1980  1981 .,   
.    50 ,  ,      
  14,3  31,3%.  50 ,  ,    -
 17,4  -10,3% . .: Gary A. Benesh and Pamela P. Peterson, On the Relation
Between Earnings Changes, Analysts' Forecasts and Stock Price Fluctuations, Financial Analysts Journal,
42, no. 6 (November/December 1986), pp. 29-39, 55.

22 .: George Foster, Chris Olsen, and Terry Shevlin, Earnings Releases, Anomalies, and the Behavior of
Security Returns, Accounting Review, 59, no. 4 (October 1984), pp. 574-603; Roger Kormendi and Robert
Lipe, Earnings Innovations, Earnings Persistence, and Stock Returns, Journal of Business, 60, no. 3 (July
1987), pp. 323-345.

23 ,          
  .  67%       -
    .  67%   -
     1,0  95%      2,0.

24  ,   ,   ,  -
 ,  ,         ,
 .      ,    (-
         )  
 ,   .  ,   ,   -
  ,       .
.: George Foster, Financial Statement Analysis (Engiev/ood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall, 1986), pp. 377386;

V.V. Chari, Ravi Jagannathan, and Aharon Ofer, Seasonalities in Security Returns: The Case of Earnings
Announcements, Journal of Financial Economics, 21, no. 1 (May 1988), pp. 101121.

25    ,         
  ,     . 17. .: Charles P. Jones and
Bruce Bublitz, The CAPM and Equity Return Regularities: An Extension, Financial Analysts Journal, 43,
no. 3 (May/June 1987), pp. 77-79.

26 Lawrence D. Brown and Michael S. Rozeff, The Superiority of Analyst Forecasts as Measures of
Expectations: Evidence from Earnings, Journal of Finance, 33, no. 1 (March 1978), pp. 116.

27 Value Line         .
.     Value Line.

28 Particia C. O'Brien, Analysts' Forecasts as Earnings Expectations, Journal of Accounting and Economics,
10, no. 1 (January 1988), pp. 53-83.

29        ,  : (1)   
        ; (2)    -
   ; (3)     ,   . , .
: John . Groth, Wilbur G. Lewellen, Gary Schlarbaum, and Ronald C. Lease, An Analysis of Brokerage