806  23

23.3.9         

     ,     -
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 ,  , .     .

          , 
         
  .        
(out-of-sample data),    (holdout sample).    -
   ()   ,  , 
      ,  
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   . 25).      
,       ,   
     .

 . 23.4    ,    
   .      -

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10 

10	
	72/II
	"'^'^^^^"^^^^^''^
	III
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70/111 72/11 

. 23.4.       
 S<SP 500      1970 .    1972 .

: James E. Pesando, The Supply of Money and Common Stock Prices: Further Observations
on the Econometric Evidence, Journal of Finance, 29, no. 3 (June 1974): p. 916 .