814                                                      23

 ,     
     - (top-down
forecasting approach}.        -
    ,     , ,  
.          ,
            .

 ,   ,  
  ,       -
 , ,    .    
(bottom-up forecasting)     . -
,           
   ,        
           . 
     ,    -
          .

      . , 
       -.   
         
     -.  
     25.  -
    (,   ) 
  .

23.5.2    

  (probabilistic forecasting)   
   ,  , -
   ,        
  .    -
       .   
       , -
    .       -
          -
   , .  ,      -
     .

23.5.3    

  (econometric model)    , 
     , 
  (endogenous variables).      -
,        , -
   (exogenous variables).    
   . ,   
           
    .     -
      (  ),  -
          
 ,     .

        ,
   ,       .  -
        .   
     ,    -
        
    .